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Joe-mentum — what happened with the Biden Surge and why politics is so hard to predict
A week really is a long time in politics. After the Nevada Caucuses Bernie Sanders seemed to be the clear front runner, with the Democratic nomination his for the taking. Then the South Carolina primary and Super Tuesday happened. Joe Biden experienced a remarkable, perhaps unprecedented, comeback and the reversal of his political fortunes. How did most people, almost everybody, including myself, get it so wrong?
Before we get into the specifics, it’s worth thinking about the misconceptions that exist about politics.
There are no experts in politics
There are experts in subjects, but even experts get things wrong. In politics, I am not sure there are even experts. Some people know things, some think they know things, but to paraphrase Chomsky, anyone with a high school education is more than capable of having an in-depth knowledge of politics.
It’s in the interests of politicians as well as journos and pundits to have people believe politics is some difficult subject that not everyone can understand. In reality, we’re all just guessing.
The Democratic Process
In a democracy, talking about politics, whether it be informally or as part of an organisation, is the same as…
